Why Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota Vikings will break out this year

Everybody knows Justin Jefferson is really good. What people don’t know though, is that the Vikings actually have a lot more than just him.

This offseason, the Vikings completely retooled their entire front office. New General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is very modern, creative, and analytics-oriented. Kwesi looks like he has already done a phenomenal job, with the addition of Z’Darius Smith and the early returns on their first 4 draft picks looking very promising.

• 1-32: Lewis Cine, S (Georgia)

• 2-42: Andrew Booth, CB (Clemson)

• 2-59: Ed Ingram, G (LSU)

• 3-66: Brian Asamoah, LB (Oklahoma)

On January 16th, 2020, the Rams hired Kevin O’Connell to be their Offensive Coordinator. Fast forward just under 2 years later, and O’Connell has succeeded in leading the Rams to a Super Bowl win and was hired to be the Head Coach of the Vikings. Having come from the McVay coaching tree, it is fair to expect lots of zone running with play-action shots coming off of it.

Before the season, I’ll admit it; I was slightly skeptical about the whole “Justin Jefferson is simply going to be the Vikings’ Cooper Kupp.” Frankly, it is extremely unreasonable to expect any player to put up those numbers. After week 1 though, I’m ready to call it though: the Vikings are going to win the AFC North.

Although many people expected the Packers’ offense to slightly drop off in production, there was lots of talk of their defensive unit possibly even being the best in the league. Well, if that’s the case, look out for the Vikings.

To start off, let’s look at what O’Connell does best as a coach.

O’Connell opens up with a 4x1 set in 10 personnel (1RB, 0TE) which forces Green Bay into a situation where they need to either:

• show that they are in man coverage by following Jefferson across the formation

• disguise as if they are in zone coverage by not following him

The problem here is that the Packers are in man coverage but they are so keen on disguising it that they don’t follow Jefferson. This creates a massive mismatch with Preston Smith covering Jefferson (!), which Cousins easily identifies and hits for the simple completion. This is just an example of how O’Connell puts his players in the best positions to succeed.

Taking a look at the next play, this is what we call PA Spear-Swirl. It is a very common play from the McVay coaching tree, which has also been used by the Bengals’ Zac Taylor. The goal is for the Z receiver to occupy the boundary corner in order to create a 1-on-1 for the X receiver, which is Jefferson.

On this snap, the Packers seem to be running Cover 2, which ideally should fall in their favour. What actually made this play work was the route by #86, the TE. This simple in-route catches the eyes of the safety for a hair of a second too long, and by the time he realizes, Jefferson has the ball in stride going the other way. Also, shoutout to Kirk Cousins who looks like prime Brady maneuvering this pocket and delivering an absolute dime.

For the final play, I decided to show a play many of you will likely say “I’ve seen this before”; and that’s because the Packers ran this play 2 years ago against Jalen Ramsey and the Rams.

This play is called Spider 2 Criss Cross. Out of 11 personnel (1RB, 1TE), the Vikings firstly motion Thielen across the formation to give them a man indicator look. The Packers are continuing with their man-match coverage where the DBs do not travel across the formation. The Vikings know this, and this is a perfect play call. As Jefferson motions across the formation, the DBs try to communicate with eachother for who will cover Jefferson, but the ball is snapped instantly and this leaves Jefferson wide open for his first Griddy of the season. You would think the Packers would know how to cover this play, because it literally comes out of their playbook.

I’m really looking forward to watching the Vikings this season, and don’t be surprised if they make a run later in the season.